Practical Issues in Constructing a Bayes' Belief Network
Bayes belief networks and influence diagrams are tools for constructing coherent probabilistic representations of uncertain knowledge. The process of constructing such a network to represent an expert's knowledge is used to illustrate a variety of techniques which can facilitate the process of structuring and quantifying uncertain relationships. These include some generalizations of the "noisy OR gate" concept. Sensitivity analysis of generic elements of Bayes' networks provides insight into when rough probability assessments are sufficient and when greater precision may be important.
Keywords: Belief Networks, Influence Diagrams, Bayesian Networks
PDF Link: /papers/87/p132-henrion.pdf
AUTHOR = "Max Henrion
TITLE = "Practical Issues in Constructing a Bayes' Belief Network",
BOOKTITLE = "Proceedings of the Third Conference Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-87)",
PUBLISHER = "AUAI Press",
ADDRESS = "Corvallis, Oregon",
YEAR = "1987",
PAGES = "132--139"